An examination of the exit polls sheds light on how a president facing unemployment near 8 percent, debt topping $16 trillion and mounting questions over the Libya terror attack was able to win a second term in office.
Obama’s win Tuesday night came from a strong showing among core Democratic constituencies, being more likable than his opponent, and an economy that voters felt is doing well-enough to give him another four years. Also, the president’s response to Hurricane Sandy in the final days of the campaign was an important factor to many voters.
Obama’s key groups made the difference -- both in their makeup of the electorate and, for the most part, their strength of support for him.
Non-whites made up 28 percent of the electorate, up a bit from 27 percent in 2008. This group largely backed Obama: 71 percent of Hispanics (it was 67 percent last time), and 93 percent of blacks (down a touch from 95 percent).
Republican challenger Mitt Romney won among white voters by 20 percentage points. That’s up from John McCain’s edge of +12 points in 2008. In addition, the share of votes cast by whites was lower (72 percent) than it has been going back to at least 1992.
Young voters were important to giving Obama his first term. Voters under age 30 showed up again this time: They represented 19 percent of all voters, one point higher than the 18 percent in 2008. Even so, they didn’t back him as strongly this time: 60 percent -- down six points.
Nationally among young voters: Obama 60% Romney 37%
Seniors backed Romney by 56-44 percent, mostly unchanged from 2008.
Meanwhile, more Democrats than Republicans voted, 38-32 percent. In 2008, Democrats also outnumbered Republicans by 39-32 percent.
Almost all Democrats supported the president (92 percent). That support was equaled among Republicans for Romney (93 percent).
Forty-five percent of independents backed Obama, down from 52 percent last time. Half of this swing group preferred Romney (49 percent).
Marital status was a more significant factor than gender this year. Women, a traditional Democratic voting group, backed Obama by 11 points -- about the same as by 13 points in 2008. Even so, married women backed Romney by 7 points (an improvement from McCain’s +3 showing).
Men backed Romney (52-45 percent), and married men backed him by an even wider margin (60-38 percent).
Romney was successful in energizing his base: conservatives accounted for 35 percent of all voters today, one-point higher than in 2008. And he captured 82 percent of them (McCain got 78 percent). White born-again Christians made up 26 percent of the voters today and 78 percent favored Romney (for McCain it was 74 percent).
In addition, white Catholics went for Romney by a margin of 59-40 percent. This is a group that has historically backed the winner.
Stats from: www.realclearpolitics.com
Bert Atkinson Jr tackled that question on the www.IJReview.com website.
#1. Purge the idiots.
Republicans cannot afford to have candidates like Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock running for office saying anything about “legitimate” rape or that God intends for rape to happen; that is downright idiotic.
Republicans can cry foul that the newly re-elected Democratic Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill pumped money into Akin’s primary campaign to push him through so that she could face a weaker candidate, which really did happen as she spent millions calling him “too conservative”, but Republicans need to be able to deal with that better before it happens. The party knew he was an idiot, they were upset with what he said, and yet other Republican Senators were supporting him by the end of the campaign just in order to try to win a seat. This method of desperation won’t work, and it didn’t as the GOP lost seats in a Senate race in which they should have gained seats.
Republicans: Make SURE you get the right candidates the first time.
#2. Attract Latino voters.
Latino voters chose Obama over Romney 71 percent to 27 percent. These are horrible statistics, and dramatically down from 2004 and 2008. Maybe adopting the phrase “self-deportation” was not the best idea for a demographic that makes up 10 percent of all voters. Yes, illegal immigration is a problem, but do not go out saying something rude and offensive like you want illegal immigrants to “self-deport” because you will not get their votes.
Disagree with that statement? Look at the results. Period.
Republicans: Get out there and talk to Latino communities. Better yet, get Marco Rubio to go out and talk to Latinos and find out what they want. Some of them certainly want some fair immigration reform so they can find some certainty in their situation, and I would be willing to bet that many Latinos want lower taxes.
#3. Black votes.
Obama won almost every black vote in the country …again. These numbers are HORRIBLE, and the GOP needs to address the situation. Black unemployment is very high at over 14 percent, and their situation clearly isn’t improving under Obama, so why do they keep supporting him?
We all know Republicans want entitlement reform, but yelling and screaming that you are going to simply cut entitlements and not lower taxes is clearly not attracting black voters. This argument made Republicans seem too much like the old-rich-white-party instead of the fiscally responsible party.
Republicans: Re-word your arguments to attract black voters. It’s marketing, not rocket science. Closing loopholes and getting rid of tax shelters raises tax revenue without actually raising tax rates, but the party is a loser because this was not clearly explained to the masses on a necessary level. If it was, Republicans would have won, and the 1%-ers would be contributing more through a more efficiently reformed tax code.
Instead, the 1% will be vilified for the next four years for legally following the tax codes.
#4. Attract Female Voters.
The idea that the Republican party doesn’t care about women is such a weak argument that it is silly. Republican’s want the best for everyone, clearly, so why do Democrats have such a leg up?
Political posturing. Democrats used the media to cry to the American masses that there was really a “War on Women” when there never really was one in the first place. But that put the GOP so far behind the 8-ball that they could never really fight back when the election came around.
Republicans: Work on your PR. If House Democrats hold a vote for a bill that Republicans shoot down for legitimate reasons but Democrats start screaming “War on Women” to the media because one tiny pork-barrel piece of the bill (that Republicans would have agreed with by itself) is also shot down, then fight back.
Spend some money if you have to. Buy TV spots. Do something, but don’t sit back and let a “War on Women” dominate the news night in and night out. The media may be liberally biased, but they would sell a 5-minute primetime spot to Republicans to better explain themselves in a heartbeat, and America would take notice. A small investment here and there may just save you money in the long run
#5. Make a goal.
Want to see some dance moves? Ask a Republican politician on camera how he or she stands on abortion. Want to see more dance moves? Ask a Republican about his or her stance on same-sex marriage on camera.
We all know Republicans want lower taxes, less regulation, and limited government, but are they willing to fight for social conservatism, or fiscal conservatism? The youth vote overwhelmingly went to Obama, not because they agreed with his economic policies, but because they agreed with his social stances.
Republicans: Make a decision about your goals and run with them. The discussions concerning Romney’s history of flip-flopping on same-sex marriage and his confusing stance on whether or not he would introduce legislation on abortion really hurt him with the youth vote.
Expanding the voter base will be key for Republicans in future elections. It was clear over the past few months that Americans are not happy with Obama, but he still won even though he didn’t fulfill MANY of his promises. With a clearer message, some better politicians, and a little polishing, the GOP can and will find success.
Bert Atkinson Jr, Editor-in-Chief, http://www.ijreview.com/
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